Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.093344 0.106027 0.119773 0.135776 0.153892 0.173763 0.197215
2026-01-04 0.072231 0.088400 0.107233 0.130783 0.159440 0.193184 0.235951
2026-01-11 0.058213 0.076294 0.098793 0.128832 0.167882 0.216941 0.283299
2026-01-18 0.048164 0.067350 0.092763 0.128857 0.178798 0.245484 0.341378
2026-01-25 0.038029 0.056576 0.082655 0.121947 0.179640 0.261280 0.385717
2026-02-01 0.029923 0.047234 0.073000 0.114075 0.177899 0.273341 0.427102
2026-02-08 0.024369 0.040703 0.066370 0.109543 0.180339 0.291905 0.481346
2026-02-15 0.019916 0.035111 0.060260 0.104786 0.181647 0.308972 0.536267
2026-02-22 0.017365 0.032227 0.058064 0.106088 0.193119 0.344267 0.627168
2026-03-01 0.014477 0.028228 0.053294 0.102115 0.194822 0.363296 0.693273
2026-03-08 0.012261 0.025067 0.049490 0.099236 0.198011 0.385443 0.768794
2026-03-15 0.010469 0.022397 0.046158 0.096672 0.201348 0.408365 0.849659
2026-03-22 0.009367 0.020976 0.045132 0.098746 0.214713 0.453766 0.984924
2026-03-29 0.008140 0.019061 0.042774 0.097664 0.221458 0.487162 1.101862
2026-04-05 0.007225 0.017664 0.041286 0.098229 0.231942 0.530331 1.248039
2026-04-12 0.006508 0.016593 0.040337 0.099869 0.245211 0.581967 1.422933
2026-04-19 0.005538 0.014713 0.037179 0.095721 0.244222 0.601216 1.526153
2026-04-26 0.004660 0.012886 0.033812 0.090434 0.239517 0.610995 1.608539
2026-05-03 0.004032 0.011591 0.031543 0.087523 0.240311 0.634404 1.729809
2026-05-10 0.003479 0.010388 0.029291 0.084236 0.239532 0.653776 1.844430
2026-05-17 0.003189 0.009873 0.028799 0.085701 0.251990 0.709995 2.069177
2026-05-24 0.002779 0.008917 0.026899 0.082801 0.251647 0.731653 2.201806
2026-05-31 0.002450 0.008140 0.025370 0.080703 0.253272 0.759153 2.356700